The NFL is one of the most watched sports leagues in the US and it has some of the most passionate fans with some of the closest outcomes in sports. This makes the NFL one of the most exciting sports to watch and potentially put money on. At Knob Knows Sports, we aim to help these loyal passionate fans get a better understanding for what our model thinks the game will unfold. There are many factors that play into this model such as momentum and front office intentions that Knob Knows Sports cannot model. This is the reason that Only Weeks 5 through 16 are modeled. Weeks before Week 5 are used to help gather information on this year’s rosters while the weeks after 16 tend to be impacted by certain teams standings. An example would be the Kansas City Chiefs resting starters in 2024 which stopped the Cincinnati Bengals from getting into the playoffs.
NFL Example Game
Date
Dec 22, 2024
Primary Team
Arizona Cardinals
Primary Team Points
23.9
Primary HOME/AWAY
AWAY
Secondary Team
Carolina Panthers
Secondary Team Points
19.6
Projected Winner
Arizona Cardinals
Projected Margin
4.4
Category Score
8
Favored Team
Arizona Cardinals
Spread
5.5
The table above shows an example of how Knob Knows Sports looks at an NFL Game. This table shows the teams playing, the NFL Model Projected Winner, the projected winning margin by the winning team, the category of the game, the favored team, and the spread. This is the table for each game that will be provided. The definitions of the above table are listed below.
Primary Team: This is just the first team, each game is calculated for both teams so each team has the opportunity to be the primary and secondary team.
Primary Team Points: This is the projected points for the primary team.
Primary HOME/AWAY: This is whether the primary team is Home or Away.
Secondary Team: This is the opponent team of the primary team for this game, each game is calculated for both teams so each team has the opportunity to be the primary team and secondary team.
Secondary Team Points: This is the projected points for the Secondary team.
Projected Winner: This is the projected winner for the game.
Projected Margin: This is the projected margin of victory for the projected winner.
Category Score: This is the total number of indicators that “score” our data, typically a higher score leads to a higher success rate for our model. An indicator can be tied between both teams, this leads to half a point being assigned to each team. For Example, Average Rush Yards Could both be 95 yards.
Favored Team: This is the favored team per ESPN.com
Spread: This was the spread at ESPN.com
This data is then broken down further and game data is broken out to help Knob Knows Sports make better decisions when putting our money on our favorite sports. These 5 practices are how Knob Knows Sports judges all of its sports. They are Team, Category, Margin, Differential Spread, and Game Type. For the NFL, the overall numbers were very good for 2024. Knob Knows Sports went 56.25% against the spread and 65.3% picking the correct winner across all available games. Each of these games are uploaded on the previous games page in the format shown above in the Example NFL Game. However by looking deeper into the data, there were certain conditions that allowed Knob Knows Sports to increase this to 65.17% ATS over 112 total games.
Team Specific DAta 2024
Team
Games
Accuracy
Cover
Arizona Cardinals
11
5
7
Atlanta Falcons
11
4
4
Baltimore Ravens
11
6
3
Buffalo Bills
11
8
5
Carolina Panthers
11
8
9
Chicago Bears
11
8
7
Cincinnati Bengals
11
11
7
Cleveland Browns
11
7
8
Dallas Cowboys
11
7
8
Denver Broncos
11
8
6
Detroit Lions
11
9
7
Green Bay Packers
11
10
5
Houston Texans
11
5
2
Indianapolis Colts
11
6
9
Jacksonville Jaguars
11
9
5
Kansas City Chiefs
11
9
7
Las Vegas Raiders
11
10
7
Los Angeles Chargers
11
7
7
Los Angeles Rams
11
6
5
Miami Dolphins
11
7
4
Minnesota Vikings
11
8
8
New England Patriots
11
4
4
New Orleans Saints
11
6
2
New York Giants
11
6
5
New York Jets
11
9
9
Philadelphia Eagles
11
7
6
Pittsburgh Steelers
11
7
7
San Francisco 49ers
11
7
8
Seattle Seahawks
11
4
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11
7
7
Tennessee Titans
11
7
5
Washington Commanders
11
8
8
Totaled Data
352
230
198
Percentages
65.34
56.25
CAtegory Data 2024
Category Score
Category Games
Accuracy
Accuracy Percentage
Spread
Spread Percentage
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
#DIV/0!
0.5
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
#DIV/0!
1
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
#DIV/0!
1.5
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
#DIV/0!
2
2
0
0
0
0
2.5
4
0
0
4
100
3
12
0
0
2
16.66666667
3.5
10
6
60
4
40
4
26
14
53.84615385
12
46.15384615
4.5
10
8
80
4
40
5
64
34
53.125
32
50
5.5
10
8
80
4
40
6
64
54
84.375
46
71.875
6.5
24
16
66.66666667
12
50
7
66
48
72.72727273
44
66.66666667
7.5
8
6
75
4
50
8
34
24
70.58823529
22
64.70588235
8.5
6
4
66.66666667
4
66.66666667
9
12
8
66.66666667
4
33.33333333
9.5
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
#DIV/0!
10
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
#DIV/0!
3.5 and Up
334
230
68.86227545
192
57.48502994
4.5 and Up
298
210
70.46979866
176
59.06040268
5.5 and Up
224
168
75
140
62.5
6 and Up
214
160
74.76635514
136
63.55140187
Projected Margin Data 2024
Projected Margin
Projected Margin Games
Accuracy
Accuracy Percentage
Cover
Cover Percentage
0-2
48
30
62.5
22
45.83333333
2-5
68
34
50
34
50
5-8
64
42
65.625
40
62.5
8-11
44
30
68.18181818
28
63.63636364
11-15
54
38
70.37037037
30
55.55555556
15-18
32
22
68.75
16
50
18-21
18
12
66.66666667
8
44.44444444
21+
24
22
91.66666667
20
83.33333333
Greater than 2
304
200
65.78947368
176
57.89473684
Greater than 5
236
166
70.33898305
142
60.16949153
Greater than 8
172
124
72.09302326
102
59.30232558
Greater than 11
128
94
73.4375
74
57.8125
Differential Spread Data 2024
Game Type Data 2024
Game Type
Games
Spread
Percentage
Primary Selected (Actual Underdog Wrong Team Favored)
51
24
47.05882353
Primary Selected (Actual Underdog but Spread is Too Big)
36
19
52.77777778
Primary Selected (Actual Favorite Blowout Win)
89
56
62.92134831
Secondary Selected (Actual Underdog Blowout Loss)
89
56
62.92134831
Secondary Selected (Actual Favorite Wrong Team Favored)
51
24
47.05882353
Secondary Selected (Actual Favorite Spread is Too Big Win)
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