The NBA has some of the most unlikeliest outcomes in all of sports. 20 point leads in the 4th quarters disappear, the worst team in the league beating the best team in the league by significant margins, teams with 2-way players as starters beating fully healthy rosters. This is what makes the NBA so much fun for the fans. At Knob Knows Sports, we strive to predict these games regardless, there are factors that impact whether the game can be modelled. This is why if you look at the previous game page you will see that the first game modelled is Nov 12, 2024 rather than opening night. You will also notice that games right after the trade dead line and at the end of the year are missing as well. These other markers in the NBA calendar impact the league whether it is trading a significant number of players or the front office providing a different motivation than winning late in the year. This left Knob Knows Sports with about 1460 games but since this number counts each team independently, the total real number of games is about 730 for 2024.
NBA Example Game
Date
Nov 12, 2024
Primary Team
Atlanta Hawks
Primary Team Points
119.7984256
Primary HOME/AWAY
AWAY
Secondary Team
Boston Celtics
Secondary Team Points
131.7883211
Projected Winner
Boston Celtics
Projected Margin
11.9898955
Category Score
8
Favored Team
Boston Celtics
Spread
16
The table above shows an example of how Knob Knows Sports looks at an NBA Game. This table shows the teams playing, the NBA Model Projected Winner, the projected winning margin by the winning team, the category of the game, the favored team, and the spread. This is the table for each game that will be provided. The definitions of the above table are listed below.
Primary Team: This is just the first team, each game is calculated for both teams so each team has the opportunity to be the primary and secondary team.
Primary Team Points: This is the projected points for the primary team.
Primary HOME/AWAY: This is whether the primary team is Home or Away.
Secondary Team: This is the opponent team of the primary team for this game, each game is calculated for both teams so each team has the opportunity to be the primary team and secondary team.
Secondary Team Points: This is the projected points for the Secondary team.
Projected Winner: This is the projected winner for the game.
Projected Margin: This is the projected margin of victory for the projected winner.
Category Score: This is the total number of indicators that “score” our data, typically a higher score leads to a higher success rate for our model. An indicator can be tied between both teams, this leads to half a point being assigned to each team. For Example, Average 3 Pointers made could both be 13.
Favored Team: This is the favored team per Oddshark.com
Spread: This was the spread at Oddshark.com
This data is then broken down further and game data is broken out to help Knob Knows Sports make better decisions when putting our money on our favorite sports. These 5 practices are how Knob Knows Sports judges all of its sports. They are Team, Category, Margin, Differential Spread, and Game Type. For the NBA, the overall numbers were very good for 2024. Knob Knows Sports went 59.1% against the spread and 68.5% picking the correct winner across all available games. Each of these games are uploaded on the previous games page in the format shown above in the Example NBA Game. However by looking deeper into the data, there were certain conditions that allowed Knob Knows Sports to increase this to 63.4% ATS over 766 individual games or 383 total games.
Team specific Data 2024
Team
Games
Accuracy
Cover
Accuracy %
Cover %
Atlanta Hawks
48
35
30
72.92
62.50
Boston Celtics
49
37
36
75.51
73.47
Brooklyn Nets
49
37
30
75.51
61.22
Charlotte Hornets
45
33
23
73.33
51.11
Chicago Bulls
50
32
31
64.00
62.00
Cleveland Cavaliers
48
37
31
77.08
64.58
Dallas Mavericks
50
28
22
56.00
44.00
Denver Nuggets
49
29
32
59.18
65.31
Detroit Pistons
49
32
32
65.31
65.31
Golden State Warriors
48
36
27
75.00
56.25
Houston Rockets
49
27
24
55.10
48.98
Indiana Pacers
48
30
26
62.50
54.17
LA Clippers
50
38
31
76.00
62.00
Los Angeles Lakers
48
30
28
62.50
58.33
Memphis Grizzlies
49
33
32
67.35
65.31
Miami Heat
50
33
27
66.00
54.00
Milwaukee Bucks
46
32
24
69.57
52.17
Minnesota Timberwolves
50
29
27
58.00
54.00
New Orleans Pelicans
51
38
28
74.51
54.90
New York Knicks
50
37
25
74.00
50.00
Oklahoma City Thunder
47
38
30
80.85
63.83
Orlando Magic
46
28
33
60.87
71.74
Philadelphia 76ers
50
33
29
66.00
58.00
Phoenix Suns
49
33
28
67.35
57.14
Portland Trail Blazers
49
31
31
63.27
63.27
Sacramento Kings
48
25
27
52.08
56.25
San Antonio Spurs
47
32
30
68.09
63.83
Toronto Raptors
48
38
31
79.17
64.58
Utah Jazz
50
38
28
76.00
56.00
Washington Wizards
50
41
30
82.00
60.00
TOTALED DATA
1460
1000
863
68.5
59.1
Category Data 2024
Category Games
Category Accuracy
Category Cover
Accuracy %
Cover %
0
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.5
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.5
2
2
2
100.00
100.00
2
18
16
10
88.89
55.56
2.5
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
3
44
32
28
72.73
63.64
3.5
6
4
4
66.67
66.67
4
94
64
62
68.09
65.96
4.5
6
2
3
33.33
50.00
5
144
72
74
50.00
51.39
5.5
6
4
0
66.67
0.00
6
202
148
133
73.27
65.84
6.5
12
10
10
83.33
83.33
7
262
162
150
61.83
57.25
7.5
22
12
6
54.55
27.27
8
388
276
236
71.13
60.82
8.5
16
14
6
87.50
37.50
9
174
134
95
77.01
54.60
9.5
6
6
4
100.00
66.67
10
58
42
40
72.41
68.97
10.5
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
11
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
5.5 and Up
1146
808
680
70.51
59.34
6.5 and Up
938
656
547
69.94
58.32
7.5 and Up
664
484
387
72.89
58.28
Projected Margin Data 2024
Projected Margin
Projected Margin Games
Projected Margin Accuracy
Projected Margin Cover
Accuracy %
Cover %
0-2
184
96
107
52.17
58.15
2-5
268
154
145
57.46
54.10
5-8
224
144
127
64.29
56.70
8-11
238
144
133
60.50
55.88
11-15
234
184
145
78.63
61.97
15-18
108
96
69
88.89
63.89
18-21
72
60
52
83.33
72.22
21-24
60
56
38
93.33
63.33
24-30
58
52
34
89.66
58.62
30+
14
14
13
100.00
92.86
11 and Up
546
462
351
84.62
64.29
15 and Up
312
278
206
89.10
66.03
18 and Up
204
182
137
89.22
67.16
Differential Spread Data 2024
Differential Spread
Games
Accuracy
Cover
Accuracy %
Cover %
0-2
249
175
130
70.28
52.21
2-5
348
231
186
66.38
53.45
5-8
326
218
185
66.87
56.75
8-11
204
145
119
71.08
58.33
11-15
188
135
143
71.81
76.06
15-18
71
41
43
57.75
60.56
18-21
32
27
25
84.38
78.13
21-24
22
14
16
63.64
72.73
24-30
17
11
13
64.71
76.47
30+
3
3
3
100.00
100.00
8 and Up
537
376
362
70.02
67.41
11 and Up
333
231
243
69.37
72.97
15 and Up
145
96
100
66.21
68.97
18 and Up
74
55
57
74.32
77.03
Game Type Data 2024
Game Type
Games
Cover
Cover %
Primary Selected (Actual Underdog Wrong Team Favored)
194
125
64.43
Primary Selected (Actual Underdog but Spread is Too Big)
152
87
57.24
Primary Selected (Actual Favorite Blowout Win)
374
213
56.95
Secondary Selected (Actual Underdog Blowout Loss)
385
221
57.40
Secondary Selected (Actual Favorite Wrong Team Favored)
193
126
65.28
Secondary Selected (Actual Favorite Spread is Too Big Win)
Knob Knows Sports 